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The period was marked by volatility and pressure on our exchange rate, highlighted by the global strengthening of the US dollar, driven primarily by investor caution regarding the pace of interest rate cuts in the United States and a flight to safer assets. Domestically, the Central Bank maintained a conservative stance following the Copom decision, reinforcing the need to keep monetary policy restrictive for an extended period in light of inflationary uncertainties. Furthermore, fiscal noise and the approaching 2026 election debate also contributed to increased volatility and reduced appetite for Brazilian assets.
The yield curve, in turn, reflected the market's attempt to gauge the extent of the economic slowdown and the Central Bank's next move. Recent data showed a gradual deceleration in activity: retail sales fell for the second consecutive month, signaling a more cautious consumer, while the IBC-Br, a proxy for GDP, also pointed to a slower growth pace. Even so, the economy remains relatively resilient, reinforcing the perception that the Central Bank will continue to act prudently before accelerating interest rate cuts. Added to this is investor concern over public accounts, which kept longer-term interest rates under pressure throughout the week.
A summary of the main events of each day that may influence the exchange rate, all in less than 1 minute.
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