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The period was once again marked by volatility in our exchange rate, driven by uncertainties surrounding the international landscape, particularly issues related to the US-Iran conflict. Furthermore, the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates again this year has strengthened the US dollar. Domestically, doubts regarding the next steps of the Central Bank of Brazil led investors to seek safer assets as a hedge. In an environment of uncertainty, our exchange rate ends up under greater pressure. This is what happened over the last few days.
The yield curve, in turn, eased again, especially in the shorter tenors. Although the Copom minutes released by the Central Bank maintained a hawkish tone, signaling concern over inflation projections, the text provided mixed signals regarding the disinflationary process, suggesting a need to keep the Selic rate high for longer until inflation reaches the target in early 2028. Consequently, the market interpreted that the Central Bank will gradually reduce the Selic rate but keep it at a restrictive level in the medium term. The June IPCA-15 result also contributed to lower interest rate pressure this week.
A summary of the main events of each day that may influence the exchange rate, all in less than 1 minute.
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