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In a shortened week due to the holiday, the real once again stood out among its emerging market peers. Global risk appetite improved following signals that the conflict between Iran and the US might be coming to an end, which contributed to better asset performance and, more importantly, the appreciation of several emerging market currencies. Furthermore, Brazil continues to benefit from speculative capital inflows driven by high interest rates. The question now is whether the conflict is truly nearing an end. As long as there is conflict, there will be volatility.
The same expectation for a resolution to the conflict also supported a moderate decline in futures interest rates throughout the week. Despite initial skepticism, signs of diplomatic progress began to gain more credibility, although significant uncertainties remain—especially regarding traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the duration of the conflict. In this context, the market is beginning to recalibrate expectations, while still acknowledging that the impacts of the shock could be more lasting, limiting the room for more aggressive Selic rate cuts, with pricing remaining virtually stable at high levels through the end of 2026.
A summary of the main events of each day that may influence the exchange rate, all in less than 1 minute.
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