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Unlike what we have seen in recent months, this week was marked by lower volatility in the foreign exchange market. Even with the uncertainties surrounding the developments of the war, our exchange rate performed more favorably over the last few days. Part of this "optimism" is related to our famous (and attractive) interest rate differential. Another part may be related to the dollar's continued global weakening, a result of how US economic policy has been conducted in recent months. It is hard to say how long this trend will last, but we cannot deny that a lower exchange rate is a positive factor for Brazil.
The yield curve, in turn, rose again throughout the week, with greater pressure on short and medium-term maturities, reflecting still-resilient economic activity indicators (see the services survey) and the Central Bank's more conservative view that the scenario has not improved since the last Copom meeting and remains marked by uncertainty and unanchored inflation expectations. This more "hawkish" tone reinforced the perception of caution regarding the pace of Selic rate cuts, pushing short-term rates above 14%, while longer-term maturities advanced, influenced by the external environment—with oil prices rising and persistent geopolitical tensions.
A summary of the main events of each day that may influence the exchange rate, all in less than 1 minute.
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