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The week was marked by pressure and volatility in our exchange rate, with the quote breaking through the R$/US$5.00 barrier, driven by a combination of external and internal factors. Abroad, tensions between the United States and Iran kept investors on the defensive, while rising U.S. Treasury yields reinforced risk aversion and weighed on emerging market currencies, including the real. In Brazil, polls showing a decline in the federal government's approval ratings and the outflow of foreign capital from the stock market contributed to the dollar's upward trend throughout the week. The decline, however, was limited by the high level of Brazilian interest rates, which continues to attract foreign capital to the country—albeit speculatively—supporting the real against pressures that might have been more intense in a different context.
The rise in U.S. Treasury yields—which reached their highest levels in years for some maturities—also spilled over into the Brazilian yield curve over the past few weeks. Oil, still at a high level, fueled concerns about global inflation, and the perception that the conflict could have longer-lasting effects shifted pressure especially to longer-term maturities, which saw the largest increases. In the local scenario, political noise added another layer of caution, with investors demanding higher rates for longer terms due to uncertainty about the direction of the economy after the elections. However, it is worth noting that even in a scenario of still-high interest rates, our economy remains resilient, as confirmed by the IBC-Br released this week.
A summary of the main events of each day that may influence the exchange rate, all in less than 1 minute.
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