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The week was marked by high volatility in the financial market, with exchange rates fluctuating based on news from abroad. The conflict in the Middle East remained the primary driver of risk aversion, boosting the dollar globally and putting pressure on emerging market currencies at times. Oil prices even surpassed the $100/barrel mark again, reflecting fears of supply disruptions and reinforcing inflationary concerns. Throughout the week, however, isolated signs of a possible truce—though fragile and contested—brought some relief to the markets, contributing to a correction in the American currency. In this context, the real performed relatively better than its peers, supported by the high interest rate differential and the fact that Brazil is a net exporter of energy commodities, which helps mitigate some of the external shocks.
Throughout the week, the Brazilian yield curve saw an "upward shift," as they say in the financial market, meaning there was an increase in expectations for higher future interest rates or greater risk ahead, primarily due to the worsening external scenario. Furthermore, the Copom's decision to begin the easing cycle with a more moderate 0.25 percentage point cut, bringing the Selic rate to 14.75%, accompanied by a cautious tone in the minutes regarding uncertainties—mainly due to the rise in oil prices—contributed to this movement. The higher-than-expected IPCA-15 result may also contribute to further pressure on the yield curve.
A summary of the main events of each day that may influence the exchange rate, all in less than 1 minute.
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