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The period was marked by an improvement in the exchange rate, with the real strengthening against the dollar, albeit with some daily volatility. The external environment remained on investors' radar: the escalating conflict in the Middle East kept oil prices under pressure, while the market continues to calibrate expectations regarding the pace of interest rates in the United States under the new Federal Reserve management. Domestically, the new tariffs announced by the United States on Brazilian products—which take effect at the end of the month—caused some additional noise, but the exclusion of agribusiness items from the list helped soften the impact on local assets.
On the yield curve, activity data reinforces a reading of economic moderation in the second quarter. May retail sales came in below the bottom of market projections, signaling a cautious consumer and fueling hypotheses of a continued interest rate cut cycle. Along the same lines, the IBC-Br remained virtually flat in May, showing signs of losing momentum: the April result was revised downward (from 0.4%) and May's performance was weaker due to agriculture, which fell 1.0%, while industry and services grew only modestly. Over the 12-month period, the index rose 1.4%. Thus, the expectation remains that the Central Bank should maintain the Selic rate cut cycle in a slow and gradual manner. A movement that was reflected in the yield curve throughout this week.
A summary of the main events of each day that may influence the exchange rate, all in less than 1 minute.
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