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The week was marked by the back-and-forth regarding a potential ceasefire in the conflict between Iran and the US, which remains unresolved. Add to this a week lacking significant economic indicators and a Brazilian holiday in the mix, and the result was lower volatility. That said, it was certainly not without its excitement. Our exchange rate fluctuated slightly and remains a favorite among emerging market currencies for capital flows. In the absence of bad news locally and with the appeal of high interest rates, the real continues to benefit from this environment, even as the external outlook worsens.
Speaking of high interest rates, the yield curve showed little change compared to the previous week. Despite a slight perception of improvement regarding the conflict and, consequently, oil prices, caution persists in the interest rate market. The expectation is for a slow and gradual interest rate cut process throughout this year; therefore, premiums remain high, with double-digit rates for both short-term and long-term maturities.
A summary of the main events of each day that may influence the exchange rate, all in less than 1 minute.
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