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The period was marked by volatility, with our exchange rate ending the week—shortened by the holiday—below R$ 5.00, which is a positive signal. Even so, the real's movement remains highly dependent on the external environment, with significant fluctuations throughout trading sessions reflecting both global risk aversion and commodity dynamics. Although the international scenario remains adverse and uncertain, especially in light of the conflict between Iran and the US, the real has found support in rising oil prices, the still-high interest rate differential, and occasional inflows into emerging markets. On the other hand, the prospect of domestic monetary easing and the global strengthening of the dollar remain vectors of caution, suggesting that currency appreciation tends to be limited and subject to short-term reversals.
Speaking of interest rates, it was a significant week for the topic, with decisions in both the US and Brazil. The Fed chose to keep rates unchanged, in line with expectations. Here, the Copom cut the Selic rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the benchmark rate to 14.50% per year. Despite the cut, the tone of the statement was significantly more cautious. The Central Bank highlighted a notable worsening in current inflation and expectations, placed greater emphasis on risks associated with oil and global uncertainty, and acknowledged greater resilience in short-term economic activity. Although it maintained the indication that the cycle would continue, the Central Bank signaled less predictability for the next steps, which contributed to upward pressure on the yield curve.
A summary of the main events of each day that may influence the exchange rate, all in less than 1 minute.
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