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Our exchange rate has shown relative stability over the last few days, following the more significant appreciation observed in January. Despite some occasional volatility, the real remains supported by the attractiveness of the interest rate differential, as the Selic rate remains at a high level, helping to maintain foreign capital inflows into the country. Even so, recent performance has been heavily influenced by the external environment and global dollar dynamics, suggesting caution in the face of uncertainties regarding international monetary policy and the evolution of the domestic fiscal landscape.
The domestic yield curve has also recently stabilized, in line with improving inflation expectations and the Central Bank's signal that the Selic rate cut cycle could begin at the next meeting. Currently, the benchmark rate remains at 15% per annum, keeping monetary policy in contractionary territory. This context has favored a reduction in risk premiums along the curve, even though rates remain high by historical standards. Thus, the scenario remains consistent with a gradual and cautious monetary easing process, reflecting the monetary authority's commitment to consolidating the disinflationary path and anchoring expectations in the medium term.
A summary of the main events of each day that may influence the exchange rate, all in less than 1 minute.
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