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Our exchange rate remained virtually stable throughout the period, reflecting a quiet domestic economic agenda and the predominance of external factors in price formation. Attention remained focused on the evolving tensions between the United States and Iran, with their impact on the oil market, as well as uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs on Brazilian products. Even so, the real performed relatively better than other emerging market currencies, supported by a high interest rate differential and the appreciation of oil, a positive factor for Brazil given its status as a net exporter of the commodity. Consequently, even in a cautious environment, financial flows continued to support the Brazilian currency.
The yield curve saw little fluctuation this week, reflecting steady expectations for monetary policy. The Focus Report released on Monday showed few changes in projections for inflation and the Selic rate, reinforcing the perception that interest rates will likely remain at a high level for longer. Furthermore, recent inflation indicators continue to point to a gradual disinflation process, which is still insufficient to ensure inflation converges to the target within the relevant horizon. Combined with the resilience of economic activity, this scenario helped keep future interest rates virtually stable throughout the week.
A summary of the main events of each day that may influence the exchange rate, all in less than 1 minute.
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