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Our exchange rate remains a positive standout among other emerging market currencies, driven by the interest rate differential, which supports the inflow of speculative capital into Brazilian assets and foreign capital investment. Furthermore, global risk aversion due to uncertainties surrounding geopolitical developments between the U.S. and Iran, as well as the evolution of U.S. tariffs, has contributed to a decrease in the dollar's attractiveness. It is still too early to call this a trend; after all, we are only at the end of February, and we will soon enter an election period in Brazil, which tends to bring pressure and volatility to our exchange rate.
The yield curve, in turn, finished slightly lower than in the previous week, reflecting an improvement in inflation expectations published in the Focus Report. Despite this, the expectation is that the decline in the benchmark interest rate will be slow and gradual, meaning the curve is still pricing in double-digit rates for both short and long-term maturities. If expectations for the Selic rate (and the exchange rate) remain relatively anchored, market confidence that the Central Bank will maintain a less restrictive monetary policy trajectory should continue to help ease the yield curve.
A summary of the main events of each day that may influence the exchange rate, all in less than 1 minute.
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