Trump’s new “old” round of tariffs

CAUSE: Since the beginning of his term, the U.S. President has pursued a trade policy defined by constant tariff shifts—implementing new tariffs, expanding others, temporarily suspending some, and even revoking certain measures. The core justification has been the protection of U.S. industry and jobs, with a focus on strengthening the domestic economy against international competition. However, this approach has caused friction in the global market, fueling volatility, uncertainty, and increased risk aversion among investors, especially during unexpected announcements. Yesterday, another chapter of this policy was written: the U.S. government announced the imposition of tariffs on all products imported from Japan and South Korea (with no exact implementation date yet), escalating trade tensions with two key strategic partners. Furthermore, this Wednesday marks the end of a 90-day tariff truce affecting about 100 countries, heightening expectations and questions regarding the White House's next moves in an increasingly sensitive and unpredictable landscape for international trade.

‍

CONSEQUENCE: The resumption of U.S. tariffs could have significant impacts on Brazil, both directly and indirectly. Brazilian export sectors, especially those operating in highly competitive markets—such as steel, aluminum, auto parts, and manufactured goods—may lose competitiveness if the U.S. redirects its demand toward exempt or domestic partners. Furthermore, in a climate of increased global protectionism, financial market instability and risk aversion rise, which can lead to capital flight from emerging markets like Brazil, putting pressure on the exchange rate (as we saw yesterday) and increasing financing costs. Finally, should this new round of tariffs intensify global trade tensions, Brazil may face a slowdown in external demand, affecting both the volume and prices of its exports.

‍