Easter products have barely left the shelves, and retail is already shifting gears for Mother's Day—but behind the scenes of international trade, the countdown is different: Christmas and Black Friday have already begun. For companies that rely on imports, especially from China, the decisions made now, still in the first half of the year, are what will define pricing, margins, and competitiveness at the end of the year.

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The signs of this early preparation are visible in the data. A survey by Logcomex shows that between January and August 2025, the volume imported by Brazil grew by 6%, while the FOB value (the price of goods at origin, before freight and insurance) rose by 10% year-over-year. This movement indicates a retail repositioning for end-of-year demand, a trend expected to repeat in 2026 as consumers become more attentive to price and delivery times.

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The pressure comes from both sides of the supply chain. On one side, the consumer. Google Consumer Insights data indicates that more than 70% of Brazilians monitor prices more than 30 days in advance, especially for higher-value items. On the other, the operation. The import cycle involves an extensive sequence—from identifying and vetting suppliers to negotiation, production, inspection, shipping, international transport, and customs clearance. In maritime shipping, this process can take over two months, not counting currency fluctuations, freight costs, and logistical bottlenecks.

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Exchange rates remain one of the main risk variables for importers. The dollar started the year above R$ 5.40 and fell over the first few months, trading below R$ 5.00 in April—a move that provided temporary relief but did not eliminate volatility. For companies with long import cycles, this instability continues to directly impact pricing and reinforces the need for early planning and currency hedging strategies.

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In this context, a six-month lead time is no longer just a recommendation; it has become a competitive requirement. Anticipating purchases increases bargaining power with suppliers, improves cost control, and reduces exposure to exchange rate and freight fluctuations. Delays, on the other hand, compromise results before a single sale is even made.

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These impacts are directly reflected in the most recent retail figures. In 2025, Black Friday generated R$ 4.76 billion on the main day alone, an increase of about 11% compared to the previous year, while total revenue between Thursday and Sunday exceeded R$ 10.1 billion in Brazilian e-commerce. This performance confirms the strength of the event and reinforces its relevance within a promotional calendar that is no longer limited to a single day, but extends throughout the entire month of November.

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More than just a date on the calendar, Christmas significantly expands this potential: in 2025, the holiday generated about R$ 72 billion in retail, cementing its position as the primary consumption period of the year and concentrating a sales volume several times higher than Black Friday in just a few weeks.

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The proximity of these dates increases the demand for imports, puts pressure on logistics chains, and raises the need for credit for working capital, early purchasing, and currency management—especially in a scenario of more sophisticated imported products and greater dependence on Asian suppliers.

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This is where financial planning takes center stage. "Well-capitalized companies are able to negotiate larger volumes and better terms with suppliers and get a head start on promotional campaigns," says Izzy Pliti, director at Ouribank. According to him, the ideal approach is to begin preparations by the end of the second quarter. "This timeframe allows companies to identify credit needs, organize imports, adjust inventory, and develop commercial actions in a structured way. Postponing this process increases the risk of higher costs and stockouts," he says.

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In this context, the executive also highlights that using currency hedging becomes a key ally, allowing companies to reduce their exposure to dollar fluctuations and bring greater cost predictability throughout the import cycle.

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Year-end margins are set now

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The growing complexity of the global supply chain reinforces the role of credit as a strategic tool, rather than just a one-off support mechanism. Lines dedicated to working capital, import financing, and receivables anticipation allow companies to operate with more predictability and seize windows of opportunity in the international market.

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“Companies that adopt strategic credit are able to turn high-consumption events into opportunities for sustainable growth,” says Izzy. According to the executive, access to financial resources enables the advance purchase of goods, improves negotiation terms with suppliers, and ensures more competitive inventory levels. In the industrial sector, it also allows for the acquisition of raw materials, equipment modernization, and workforce reinforcement to meet increased demand.

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This trend intensifies in the months leading up to peak consumption. In recent years, Ouribank has recorded an increase in the demand for business credit in the period before Black Friday and Christmas, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises looking to expand inventory and finance promotional campaigns. Further growth is expected in 2026, driven by the digitalization of retail and greater integration with global supply chains.

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For those working in foreign trade, the message is clear: the end of the year has already begun. And in this scenario, failing to plan ahead is costly—and, in many cases, compromises competitiveness even before the first sale is made.

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